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This week’s Private Members session focused on where the next opportunities could emerge as September gives way to October. Financials and energy took center stage, with several bearish setups developing beneath a market that’s still sending mixed signals.

Jason and Rick also reviewed open alerts, highlighted targets already reached, and demonstrated how ThermoTrend can help you evaluate whether momentum supports a potential trade.

The Quick Shortlist

• XLF and regional banks: XLF’s break below $57 put $54 in focus. KeyCorp and Huntington stood out as put candidates being scouted.
• XLE and Halliburton: Energy remains on the downside watchlist following XLE’s break below $62, although some names were bouncing. Halliburton was highlighted as the most actionable bearish candidate in the group.
• TEVA: A break above $41 could provide the next bullish trigger.
• CLF: Watching $12.75–$13 for breakout confirmation, with $14.25 as the potential upside destination.
• AUPH and RXRX: Open bullish alerts, with both still waiting for the price action needed to unlock their next moves.
• IWM and MAX: IWM reached its $280 downside target, while MAX also hit its target.
• Best Buy: A break below $90 put it on the radar for a potential Insider Edge alert.

The developing watchlist ideas are not yet official alerts. They still need to meet the conditions discussed before an alert is issued.

Financials Are a Major Focus Heading Into October

The financial-sector discussion went beyond XLF itself to identify where weakness could create opportunities in individual banks.

KeyCorp was highlighted as the most actionable regional-bank candidate going into next week, after leaving the $20.50 area. Huntington was another priority, with puts being considered below $15.50 and ThermoTrend showing a bearish turn.

PNC, Regions Financial, Truist, and Fifth Third remain on the monitoring list, with $45 discussed as a downside destination for Truist.

Bank of America offered a different possibility: a potential rebound setup. Rick is watching whether the $55–$55.25 area and the 200-day moving average can hold, with a recovery of $57.50 potentially bringing calls into consideration. An oversold reading alone wasn’t the entry signal—the support and recovery still matter.

Energy’s Bounce Hasn’t Removed the Downside Watchlist

XLE had broken below $62, but several energy names were retracing upward during the session. That makes confirmation especially important.

Halliburton stood out as the clearest bearish candidate in the group. Rick’s key level was $33: holding it and reclaiming the 50-day moving average would support the bullish case, while closes below it could open a move toward $31.

HF Sinclair, ConocoPhillips, Marathon Petroleum, and ExxonMobil were also being watched. Shell was being set aside following its rebound.

For crude oil, $88 on CL was the downside threshold highlighted for additional pressure and put opportunities. Members can also look out for the XLE video and a separate oil-scalping update covering Striker levels and smart-money setups.

The Market Still Needs to Prove Its Direction

The NASDAQ had broken above 26,750, but a return below that level would bring it back into its prior trading range. A loss of 26,000 would raise the risk of a near-term top.

Meanwhile, the Dow, small caps, and transports were showing weakness. The VIX near 15 remained encouraging, but Rick emphasized that repeated closes above 20–22 would send a more bearish message.

The practical takeaway: keep room to respond to either outcome. With relatively few open directional alerts, there’s flexibility to pursue bearish setups if the market breaks down or bullish opportunities if support holds.

Use ThermoTrend to Check Whether the Setup Has Support

The live demonstration compared Rick’s watchlist with ThermoTrend’s trend and momentum readings.

TEVA and CLF showed bullish alignment, while NVO and Rocket showed bearish readings. Other charts still needed a crossover or a change in momentum, reinforcing why a promising idea may remain on the watchlist.

That same patience applies to the open biotech alerts. AUPH was coiling inside a symmetrical triangle, with $17–$17.25 the area to clear for a potential move toward $18. RXRX needed a break above $4 for its bullish scenario, and Rick explicitly described it as a high-risk, high-reward alert tied to upcoming news.

If you already own Triple Play, the session also clarified that its tools already include the ThermoTrend trend and momentum elements.

Target Hits—and the Next Insider Edge Candidates

Alongside IWM reaching $280 and MAX hitting its target, the Insider Edge review highlighted developing opportunities in Dell, Life Time, and Best Buy, plus a downside move already underway in JLL.

Best Buy’s break below $90 made it a potential upcoming alert, with more scanner candidates set for Monday’s review. In the 5K update, Fair Isaac and Equifax were also highlighted for their downside moves.

P.S. Keep an Eye Out for the Extra Training and Access

Check the Members Area and your invitations for the XLE video, oil-scalping update, and planned volume-profile workshop. A Members Area walkthrough is also planned for Monday’s Index Club session.

An automated-trading special is being scheduled but isn’t finalized. Further 0DTE scalping training is planned, alongside a dedicated tool being considered for later October or potentially November.

The session also offered an invitation to Velocity Options introductory training on September 24 at 6 PM Eastern, separate from the 4 PM member check-in, covering how the watchlist opportunities are found.

Watch the full Private Members replay to see the financial and energy charts, the ThermoTrend comparisons, and the confirmation details behind the setups being considered next.

Bulls Bend, Don’t Break

Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts

Major Market Levels

Nasdaq

Support To Hold: 26,000

Bullish Price To Clear: 26,750

All-Time High Level: 27,000 (27,190 on 6/1)

Bearish Breakdown Level: 25,250

The Nasdaq was up 0.7% for the week with the gain for 2026 now at 14.1%. Wednesday’s low at 25,802 and close below key support at 26,000 was slightly bearish but held the bottom of the current uptrend channel. We often talk about stretch and we said multiple closes below 26,000, the 50-day moving average, and the current uptrend channel would suggest fresh weakness back down to 25,250. This also represents the July 23rd triple-bottom breakdown that led to an ultimate and quick 10% selloff.

Thursday’s rebound and Friday’s run to 26,544 were bullish sessions that helped clear lower resistance at 26,500-26,750. Once again, we mention closes above the latter and the June 1st all-time high at 27,190 could lead to our May 29th targets at 28,000-28,250.

S&P 500

Support To Hold: 7,600

Bullish Prices To Clear: 7,775

All-Time High Level: 7,800 (7,816 on 8/13)

Bearish Breakdown Levels: 7,600-7,550 (in play)

The S&P dipped -0.1% last week with its YTD gain falling to 11.8%. Crucial support at 7,600 and the 50-day moving average failed to hold on Tuesday with Wednesday’s weakness hitting 7,507. Backup support at 7,500-7,400 held with the July 29th low at 7,313.

Resistance remains at 7,700-7,775 with Friday’s high at 7,657. Closes above 7,800 and August 13th record peak at 7,816 would be a fresh bullish signal with upside towards 8,000-8,250. Our Price Target for the index from May 29th was at 7,775 and we have talked about stretch towards 8,000-8,150 if the bulls can clear the five-week trading range.

Russell 2000

Support To Hold: 2,800 (New)

Bullish Prices To Clear: 2,925-2,950 (New)

All-Time High Level: 3,075 (3,069 on 8/14)

Bearish Breakdown Levels: 2,875-2,800 (in play)

The Russell fell -1.5% for the week with its return for 2026 lowered to 15.2%. We WARNED the August 28th close below 3,000 and the 50-day moving average could easily lead to a retest to 2,925 and possibly 2,875-2,800. Wednesday’s low tagged 2,832.

Lowered resistance is now at 2,900-2,925. Closes above the latter and out of the current downtrend channel would be slightly bullish but more important hurdles are at 2,975-3,000 and the 50-day moving average.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Support To Hold: 51,000 (New)

Bullish Price To Clear: 53,250 (New)

All-Time High Level: 54,750 (54,749 all-time high on 8/5)

Bearish Breakdown Level: 51,000 (in play)

The Dow stumbled -1.7% for the week with the index up 7.5% for the year. Key support at 52,000 failed to hold on Wednesday’s drop to 51,192. We said coming into last week multiple closes below 52,000 could lead to quick 500-point drops towards 50,000.

Lowered resistance is at 52,000-52,250 with the more important obstacles at 52,750-53,000 and a rolling over 50-day moving average. Closes above these levels would be a slight relief signal but 53,250 needs to be recovered before we would say a near-term bottom is in place.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

Initial Warning Level (Slightly Bearish): Multiple closes above 16.75-17.50 (lowered)

Bearish Market Signal: Multiple closes above 20-22

Lower Volatility Targets (Ongoing Bullishness): 15-13.50 (raised)

The VIX traded up to 18.94 on Wednesday afternoon we specifically said closes above 18.25-18.50 and the 200-day moving average likely gets 20-22 on the map. The index closed above 17 the first three days of last week but held the aforementioned levels. This gave us a great clue, despite the volatility, that the market could hold up and possible rebound since the bears couldn’t take advantage of the Fed drama.

Friday’s close back below key support at 15 once again has us talking about 13.50 and last Christmas Eve’s low at 13.38. We have been a broken record highlighting this area as a possible clue for the major indexes returning to all-time highs. We have even whispered a possible “single-digit” VIX and an occurrence that happened in 2017 and 2007.

Earnings and Economic News

Before the open: None

After the close: None

Economic News

Tuesday - Richmond Fed

Commentary

Volatility bubbled to a fresh monthly high and above the August peak after the Fed unanimously raised rates last Wednesday. The 25 basis points hike to 3.75%-4% was the first bump since 2023 and comes after the Fed said economic activity remained solid but inflation remains elevated.

The major indexes closed at weekly lows following the Fed update but bounced back on Thursday after the initial “sell-the-news” pullback. Friday was a mixed session as the divergence we have been highlighting over the past month between the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 versus the Russell and the Dow continues to play out.

The Dow has dropped three straight weeks and four of the past five. The Russell has showed much more weakness and has sank -4.7% over the last two weeks and has also lost ground in four of the past five weeks. The blue-chips have developed a fresh downtrend channel following last week’s closes below the 52,000 level.

Since the August 21st close, the Dow has given back -3.3% and the Russell has tumbled -6.4%. More importantly, the Russell remains in a downtrend channel and is down 7% from its all-time top at 3,069 from August 14th.

We have repeatedly talked about weakness towards 2,800 over the past few weeks for the Russell 2000 and a level that would represent a 9% shellacking. A 10% selloff would occur if the small-caps sniffed 2,775.

On the flip side, the Nasdaq has gained 1.5% and has settled higher in three of the past four weeks. The S&P is down, but only by 0.3%, since August 21st and has been mixed over the past four with two weekly wins and losses.

The key takeaway, however, is that both indexes have been in 33-session ranges with the S&P stuck between 7,600-7,775 and the Nasdaq saddled between 26,000-26,750. This equates to 2% and 3% ranges, respectively.

As far as oil, we highlighted the recent tape in West Texas Crude above $104 and said the market needed to get oil back below triple-digits a barrel and more importantly, the $96 level. Thursday’s and Friday’s low’s had a $99-handle but $100 held into the weekend.

The 10-year Treasury yield remains near 5% but the action is showing us the smart money is still hiding in large-cap Tech and AI stocks. The question going forward and into month-end is whether that leadership can finally pull the rest of the market higher, or whether persistent 5% Treasury yields will eventually start to weight on Tech.

As far as the upcoming seek, expect less drama following the Fed fireworks with New Home sales on Thursday and Durable Goods and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report due out on Friday.

There are a few notable companies reporting earnings this week and before the official start of the 3Q earnings season starting in early October. AutoZone on Tuesday; Cintas, Paychex and General Mills on Wednesday; and Costco and Darden Restaurants on Thursday.

The September monthly options have officially expired. October and November regular monthly options have 25 days and 60 days, respectively, before expiration and as of Monday’s opening bell.

Futures as we head to press: Nasdaq (176); Dow (151); S&P (29); and the Russell (8).

This week’s session focused on where trading opportunities stand after the latest rate decision. Several setups have confirmed, others are approaching potential entry areas, and weakness in financials and small caps remains worth watching.

The main takeaway: there are opportunities on both sides of the market, but the next entry still depends on the levels confirming.

The Quick Shortlist

• GLD: Reclaimed $395; an open above that level is the next condition being watched before a potential Index Club buy alert.
• MRVL: Confirmed a close and an open above $220, putting the $260 target in play.
• BRK.B: A potential retest of $510 could offer a buy opportunity.
• XLE: Moving back toward the $62 buy-entry area.
• AUPH: Active Velocity call alert; watching $17.25–$17.50 for a breakout toward $18.
• PSMT / MAX: Bearish setups remain on track toward $156 and $10, respectively.
• Financials: BAC, KEY and XLF could help signal whether the market stabilizes or develops further weakness.

Financials Are a Key Group to Watch

Bank of America and KeyCorp offer clear levels for judging the next move.

For BAC, the focus is $57.50 support and a recovery above $60. Holding support and reclaiming $60 could bring calls into consideration; losing $57.50 could shift the setup toward puts.

For KEY, $20.75 needs to hold. A recovery through $21–$21.25 could offer another entry, while repeated closes below support could prompt a bearish setup.

XLF has already lost $57, with $55.50 and potentially $54.50 being watched below. The broader outlook still includes a $60 target into November–December, but a bullish outlook alone isn’t an entry signal.

Which Setups Have Confirmed?

MRVL delivered the required close and open above $220. The other semiconductor names—NVDA, AMD and QCOM—remain in a holding pattern ahead of Sunday’s review.

Within Insider Edge, PSMT broke below $175, keeping its $156 target in focus. MAX cleared below $13, with $10 as the downside objective. MORN already reached its $190 target last Friday; another opportunity would require a fresh setup.

Meanwhile, VAC hasn’t reached the $98 area being watched for another entry.

The same distinction applies to potential buys: GLD has reclaimed its key level but still needs the opening confirmation, while BRK.B and XLE are approaching areas of interest.

Open Alerts—and a Useful Exit Lesson

AUPH is the active Velocity call alert. A break through $17.25–$17.50 would put the initial $18 objective in focus; a breakdown below moving-average and trendline support could bring $15 into play.

FSLR has an active bear call spread using the $210 and $212.50 strikes, opened for approximately $0.30 credit. A rebound into the $202.50–$205 area warrants attention to the early-exit guidance.

CRWD continues to hold up after testing $205, while LULU’s bearish setup continues trending lower following its earnings gap down.

The review also covered closed positions in PAA and RIVN. PAA finished with a small profit after previously showing a much larger gain, prompting a discussion about taking partial profits and following exit rules. A new PAA opportunity would require a pullback toward $25 and several sessions holding that level.

What Could Change the Market Picture?

The NASDAQ held 26,000, while 26,750 remains the upside breakout level. Multiple VIX closes below 15 would be another encouraging development.

Small caps remain less convincing: IWM was still below $287.50 when reviewed. The QQQM put alert also remains under observation with the ETF just below $295.

With relatively few alerts open, the focus is on waiting for confirmation as the next setups develop.

Coming Up for Members

Index Club levels will be revisited Sunday at 6 PM, followed by developing Insider Edge opportunities Monday at 5 PM.

Additional training discussed included Triple Play, 0DTE and scalping, and Velocity ahead of earnings season. Members also saw a preview of improvements designed to organize alerts by program, with release expected the following week.

P.S. Get the extra resources: The session included access offers for Profit Pyramid training and recordings, an SMH4 explainer video, and upcoming training sessions. Watch the full replay for the charts, detailed alert guidance, and instructions for requesting those resources.

We are LIVE RIGHT NOW with the final day of our Profit Pyramid Challenge!

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Volatility Eases After Bulls Rebound

Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts

Major Market Levels

Nasdaq

Support To Hold: 26,000

Bullish Price To Clear: 26,750

All-Time High Level: 27,000 (27,190 on 6/1)

Bearish Breakdown Level: 25,250

The Nasdaq fell 0.7% for the week with the return for 2026 lowered to 13.3%. Thursday’s bottom at 25,979 once again stretched key support at 26,000 on the one day close below the 50-day moving average. Closes below BOTH these levels and out of the current uptrend channel gets 25,250 back on the radar. This also represents the July 23rd triple-bottom breakdown that led to an ultimate and quick 10% selloff.

Friday’s high tagged 26,431 but failed lower resistance at 26,500-26,750. Closes above the latter and the June 1st all-time high at 27,190 could lead to our May 29th targets at 28,000-28,250. We mentioned last week, the Fibonacci shows possible upside to 28,175 with the August 24th low giving us the near-term bottom, or “3”, on the chart. The Nasdaq remains in a four-month plus 1,500 point range since May 5th following the breakout above 25,250.

S&P 500

Support To Hold: 7,600

Bullish Prices To Clear: 7,775

All-Time High Level: 7,800 (7,816 on 8/13)

Bearish Breakdown Levels: 7,600-7,550 (in play)

The S&P slipped 0.8% last week with its YTD gain dipping to 11.9%. Crucial support at 7,600 and the 50-day moving average failed to hold on Thursday’s trip to 7,580 and close out of the uptrend channel. We have been warning multiple closes below these levels would be a bearish development with weakness towards 7,500-7,400 and the July 29th low at 7,313.

Lowered resistance is at 7,700-7,775 with Friday’s high at 7,677. Closes above 7,800 and August 13th record peak at 7,816 would be a fresh bullish signal with upside towards 8,000-8,250. Our Price Target for the index from May 29th was at 7,775 and we have talked about stretch towards 8,000-8,150 if the bulls can clear the five-week trading range.

Russell 2000

Support To Hold: 2,875 (New)

Bullish Prices To Clear: 2,950-3,000 (New)

All-Time High Level: 3,075 (3,069 on 8/14)

Bearish Breakdown Levels: 2,875-2,800 (in play)

The Russell tumbled 2.4% for the week but has still surged 17% in 2026. The index has now fallen in three of the past four weeks and more importantly, closed below shaky support at 2,925 for the third-straight day. We WARNED the August 28th close below 3,000 and the 50-day moving average could easily lead to a retest to 2,925. We have also been repeatedly saying multiple closes below 2,925, and not just one session, would be a bearish development for the small-caps and indicate a possible near-term top. There is now additional downside pressure to 2,875-2,800 in a freshly formed downtrend channel.

Lowered resistance is now at 2,950-3,000. We wanted to see 3,050 cleared last week and that level was nowhere to be found on the radar. We talked about a possible double-top peak forming at 2,975 the prior Friday with Tuesday’s peak just north of this level. Once it didn’t hold into the close, we had a feeling the rest of the week could be volatile.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Support To Hold: 52,000 (lowered)

Bullish Price To Clear: 53,250 (lowered)

All-Time High Level: 54,750 (54,749 all-time high on 8/5)

Bearish Breakdown Level: 52,000 (in play)

The Dow dipped 0.3% for the week with the index up 11.1% for the year. Key support at 52,000 was tripped but held on Thursday’s dip down to 51,968. We said coming into last week closes below 52,750 would likely confirm trouble down to 52,000 again. Multiple closes below this level could lead to quick 500-point drops towards 50,000.

Lowered resistance is at 53,000-53,250 and a flatlining 50-day moving average. Closes above the latter would be a slightly bullish signal but 54,000 needs to be recovered and the bottom of the uptrend channel before we would say the bulls are out of the woods.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

Initial Warning Level (Slightly Bearish): Multiple closes above 16.75-17.50 (lowered)

Bearish Market Signal: Multiple closes above 20-22

Lower Volatility Targets (Ongoing Bullishness): 15-13.50 (raised)

The VIX traded up to 18.17 and 17.71 to close the week with the 200-day moving average holding into the weekend. We specifically said closes above 18.25-18.50 and the 200-day moving average likely gets 20-22 on the map and would suggest a possible near-term market peak. Same deal again this week.

New support is at 15-13.50 again.

Earnings and Economic News

Before the open: RF Industries (RF), Hain Celestial Group (HAIN)

After the close: High Tide (HITI), Dave & Buster’s (PLAY), MindWalk Holdings (HYFT)

Economic News

None

Commentary

All four major indexes finished the holiday-shortened week lower as oil, inflation, and interest rates dominated the headlines. West Texas Crude pushed through $100 a barrel as Middle East supply concerns intensified, reviving fears that higher fuel and transportation costs could feed another inflation wave.

The chart below shows a perfect symmetrical triangle forming to close out August. We warned if $88 cleared it would bearish for the market despite the bombshell news that the U.S. and Venezuela has reached an oil deal. WTI traded up to $112.585 in early March and had stayed below $100 since May 20th until Thursday’s surge past $104. Friday held $105 but $96 needs to be recovered to soothe some market anxiety.

Friday’s economic news matched expectations as August PPI rose 0.4% for the month and 5.4% year-over-year. However, energy goods were up sharply. Meanwhile, the CPI numbers showed headline inflation holding at 3.4%, while core CPI was 2.4%.

The 10-year Treasury yield moved to roughly 4.97% and is near levels not seen since 2023. With the Fed meeting coming up this week, the market is pricing roughly a 90% probability of a September rate hike. Additionally, several economists now expect a 25-basis-point increase, which would take the federal-funds target range to roughly 3.75%–4%.

As far as the upcoming seek, Wednesday will be a big day as August Retail Sales are due out before the open along with Import/Export Prices. Retail Sales deserve extra attention because they’ll tell Wall Street whether consumers are holding up despite elevated gas prices and borrowing costs.

The Federal Reserve will also announce its decision on interest rates at 2pm (EST) on Wednesday that will be followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference. All signs are leaning heavily toward a quarter-point hike, so the bigger issue may be what Warsh says about additional hikes afterwards.

The September monthly options have 4 days from Monday’s open before expiration. October and November regular monthly options have 32 days and 67 days, respectively, before expiration.

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Happy Friday, Members!

We apologize that yesterday's session was cut short due to unexpected technical difficulties. To ensure you don’t miss any of the information covered, we’ve provided a complete recap below.

Live Alerts

RIVN — Velocity’s open alert was near breakeven. Watch for a move above the major moving averages and then $17.25. The stated exit level is below $14.50.

PAA — Velocity alert remained open; calls reached $0.79 for a reported 126% return. The team is holding aggressively for a move above $26 toward $30, with a $0.40 stop limit. Members who prefer may take profits around 86%.

NWL — Real Wealth Income covered-call position: a $6 January call was sold against shares. Multiple closes above $6.25, or a breakout above $6.50, could support consideration as a directional Velocity setup.

CRK — Real Wealth Income covered-call position remains open. The September $16 call was sold, and the position may be called away in the coming weeks.

Priority Tickers to Watch This Week

VXX — A possible directional alert is being considered if suitable premiums are available; the chart was described as potentially bottoming.

HOOD — Being watched as a potential covered-call candidate around $125, with volatility remaining the key consideration.

Secondary Tickers to Watch This Week

FSL — Moved above $215; the team stayed on the sidelines amid market conditions.

AAPL — A bull put spread was considered; a move back below $317 was described as slightly bearish.

MSFT — Fresh Red Zone levels were identified; no alert was issued.

NVDA — The double-top setup appeared to be playing out. The 50-day moving average remained in an uptrend, with $210 identified as a possible retracement area.

Longer-Term Trading Ranges Remain Intact

Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts

Major Market Levels

Nasdaq

Support To Hold: 26,000

Bullish Price To Clear: 26,750

All-Time High Level: 27,000 (27,190 on 6/1)

Bearish Breakdown Level: 25,250

The Nasdaq was up 0.4% for the week with the return for 2026 at 14%. Tuesday’s low at 25,995 stretched key support at 26,000 but held the 50-day moving average. Closes below these levels and out of the current uptrend channel gets 25,250 back on the radar and where the July 23rd triple-bottom breakdown occurred.

Thursday’s weekly peak kissed 26,644 but failed key resistance at 26,750. Closes above this level and the June 1st all-time high at 27,190 could possibly get our May 29th targets at 28,000-28,250 in play. The Fibonacci has possible upside to 28,175 with the August 24th low giving us the near-term bottom, or “3”, on the chart. This would equate to a 6% move from Friday’s close. Overall, the Nasdaq has basically been in a four-month 1,500 point range since May 5th following the breakout above 25,250.

S&P 500

Support To Hold: 7,600

Bullish Prices To Clear: 7,775

All-Time High Level: 7,800 (7,816 on 8/13)

Bearish Breakdown Levels: 7,600-7,550

The S&P edged up 0.1% last week with its YTD gain rising to 12.8%. Crucial support at 7,600 and the 50-day moving average held on Tuesday’s tumble to 2,611. Closes below these levels and out of bottom of the uptrend channel would be a bearish signal with weakness towards 7,500-7,400 and the July 29th low at 7,313.

Resistance at 7,775 easily held to close out the week with Thursday’s top at 7,756. Closes above 7,800 and August 13th record peak at 7,816 would be a renewed bullish signal with upside towards 8,000-8,250. Our Price Target for the index from May 29th was at 7,775 and we have talked about upside towards 8,000-8,150 if the bulls can clear the month long trading range. The current Fibonacci show an extension towards 8,100 off the July 29th low.

Russell 2000

Support To Hold: 2,925

Bullish Prices To Clear: 3,000-3,025

All-Time High Level: 3,075 (3,069 on 8/14)

Bearish Breakdown Levels: 2,875

The Russell also added 0.1% for the week and has jumped 19.9% in 2026. The index snapped a two-week losing streak despite closing below shaky support at 2,925 on Tuesday with the low tapping 2,916. We mentioned the prior Friday’s close below 3,000 and the 50-day moving average could easily lead to a retest to 2,925. We have stated multiple closes below 2,925, and not just one session, would be a bearish development for the small-caps and indicate a near-term top with additional downside pressure to 2,875-2,800.

Resistance for the upcoming week is at 3,000 after the index stalled at 2,976 in back-to-back sessions (watch this!). The bulls need to clear not only the 3,000-3,025 area, but 3,050 and the bottom of the current uptrend channel to regain momentum. Overall, the index has been range bound between 2,925-3,050 since mid-June.

Now this is important - we said an important takeaway from last month’s action is that the Fibonacci chart showed a near-term top for the Russell off the March 30th low with the 61.8% level holding in mid-August. We also specifically said the August 14th high can be used for a short Fibonacci, that showed 2,925 coming into play - and being a possible bottom. The one concern going forward is that the same short Fibonacci is showing a possible double-top peak if 3,000 doesn’t clear this week.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Support To Hold: 52,750 (lowered)

Bullish Price To Clear: 54,000 (raised)

All-Time High Level: 54,750 (54,749 all-time high on 8/5)

Bearish Breakdown Level: 52,000

The Dow dipped 0.3% for the week with the index still advancing 11.1% for the year. Key support at 53,250 failed to hold on Monday and set the stage for Tuesday and Wednesday’s battle at the 50-day moving average. A close below 52,750 would likely confirm trouble down to 52,000 again.

Resistance remains at 53,750-54,000. Closes above the latter would be a fresh bullish signal for a retest to the August 5th all-time high at 54,749 and our May 8th target of 55,000. This price target was reiterated on June 24th after Alphabet was added to the index.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

Initial Warning Level (Slightly Bearish): Multiple closes above 16.75-17.50 (lowered)

Bearish Market Signal: Multiple closes above 20-22

Lower Volatility Targets (Ongoing Bullishness): 12.75-11.50 (new)

The VIX traded up to 16.80 and 16.82 on Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s highs with new and lowered resistance levels at 16.75-17.50 and the 50-day moving average holding. Closes above 18.25-18.50 and the 200-day moving average likely gets 20-22 on the map and would suggest a possible near-term market peak.

Friday’s multi-month low touched 13.80. Closes below 13.50 keeps weakness towards 12.75-11.50 on the bullish board for the market.

Earnings and Economic News

Before the open: None

After the close: None

Economic News

None for Monday (market closed)

Commentary

Tuesday weakness was attributed to the renewed U.S.–Iran hostilities that drove oil sharply higher, with WTI jumping above $90a barrel. The global bond selloff also pushed Treasury yields toward multi-year highs as higher energy costs revived inflation concerns and fears that the Fed may need to tighten again.

Friday's jobs report and the addition of 162,000 jobs in August - far above expectations near 55,000 - sounded good economically, but Wall Street interpreted it as another reason the Fed could remain hawkish. This kept resistance levels in force as treasury yields jumped with the indexes giving back some of Thursday's rally.

The market is still holding together surprisingly well considering the combination of $90+ oil, elevated Treasury yields, geopolitical risk and renewed rate-hike concerns. However, one bearish signal we have been watching since mid-August is the action in the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT).

Like the major indexes, the Transports made an incredible run off the mid-March lows near the 17,650 area with the April 22nd peak reaching 24,825. This represented a 41% run but started a couple of weeks BEFORE the overall market bottomed off the intraday March 30th lows.

There was obviously a retracement afterwards that lasted into mid-May before a rebound towards 22,800 in June and again in July. Now, this is important, this has been serving as a double-top ever since with lower lows.

History typically shows the Transports being an early signal for market direction, especially for the Dow Jones. If the Transports make multiple closes below 20,500 it would be worth watching as backup support at 20,000 and the 200-day moving average likely gets tested. If 19,500 fails, there could be a major selloff down to 17,650 and the March lows.

Some of the biggest stocks in the Dow Transports include Union Pacific (UNP), CSX, FedEx (FDX) and Delta Air Lines (DAL). The airline stocks have already started rolling over and UNP fell below its 50-day moving average last week.

For the upcoming week, economic news could have a major impact on market direction with Thursday’s Producer Prices for August and Friday’s CPI report. Earnings for the week include GameStop on Tuesday with Oracle and Adobe on Thursday.

And finally, we mentioned if the VIX gets below 13.50 and the S&P hasn’t cleared 7,775-8,000, or the Nasdaq isn’t above 26,750-27,000, there could be trouble brewing. There’s a saying on Wall Street that “when the VIX is low, its time to go…” but we have said lower lows are still in play as we have been predicting one last market leg higher before a possible market curveball comes.

The September monthly options have 10 days from Tuesday’s open before expiration. October and November regular monthly options have 38 days and 73 days, respectively, before expiration.

Futures as we head to press: Nasdaq (+38) futures are showing green, Dow (-329), S&P (-13) and the Russell (-9 points) futures are in the red.

Small-Caps Showing Cracks

Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts

Major Market Levels

Nasdaq

Support To Hold: 26,000

Bullish Price To Clear: 26,750

All-Time High Level: 27,000 (27,190 on 6/1)

Bearish Breakdown Level: 25,250

The Nasdaq was up 0.8% for the week with the gain for 2026 at 13.6%. Thursday’s recovery back above 26,250 was slightly bullish with more important resistance at 26,750 holding into the weekend. Friday’s peak hit 26,700 with closes above these levels and the all-time high at 27,190 possibly leading to our May 29th targets at 28,000-28,250. The fresh Fibonacci has possible upside to 28,175 with the August 24th low giving us the near-term bottom, or “3”, on the chart.

Support is at 26,250-26,000. Closes below the latter and the 50-day moving average gets 25,250 back on the map and where the July 23rd triple-bottom breakdown occurred. If the bears can get multiple closes below 25,250 again and the new uptrend line, there is retest risk down to 24,500-24,000.

S&P 500

Support To Hold: 7,600

Bullish Prices To Clear: 7,775

All-Time High Level: 7,800 (7,816 on 8/13)

Bearish Breakdown Levels: 7,600-7,550 (New)

The S&P rose 0.5% for the week with its YTD rising to 12.7%. Resistance at 7,775 held by less than four points on Friday’s run to 7,771 but lower close. Closes above 7,800-7,850 would be a renewed bullish signal with upside towards 8,000-8,250. Our Price Target for the index from May 29th was at 7,775 and we have highlighted upside towards 8,000-8,150 if the bulls can clear the month long trading range. The current Fibonacci charts show an extension towards 8,100-8,250 off the March 30th and July 29th lows.

Support is at 7,600-7,550 and the 50-day moving average. Closes below these levels and out of bottom of the uptrend channel would be another possible bearish breakdown towards 7,500-7,400 with the July 29th low at 7,313.

Russell 2000

Support To Hold: 2,925

Bullish Prices To Clear: 3,000-3,025

All-Time High Level: 3,075 (3,069 on 8/14)

Bearish Breakdown Levels: 2,875 (new, lowered)

The Russell stumbled 1.5% for the week but is still up 19.8% in 2026. However, the index was the only one not to post a weekly gain, and is now down 3% over the past two weeks. Shaky support at 3,000-2,975 and the 50-day moving average all failed to hold on the closing low at 2,972. A drop below 2,925 likely indicates a near-term top with additional downside pressure to 2,875-2,800.

We warned to watch a possible breakdown out of the uptrend channel and back below 3,000 coming into last week with Monday’s action confirming our prediction. The bottom of the new uptrend channel is now at the 3,025 level. We stated 3,050 also needed to be cleared last week to regain bullish momentum with last Thursday’s weekly peak at 3,019 and Monday’s and Friday’s highs at 3,017.

Another important takeaway from this month’s action is the Fibonacci chart is showing a near-term top for the Russell off the March 30th lows with the 61.8% level holding perfectly mid-Month. The August 14th low can be used for a short Fibonacci, although we would like more data, but shows 2,925 coming into play - and being a possible bottom.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Support To Hold: 53,250

Bullish Price To Clear: 53,500 (lowered)

All-Time High Level: 54,750 (54,749 all-time high on 8/5)

Bearish Breakdown Level: 52,000

The Dow was higher by 0.5% for the week with the gain at 11.4% for the year. The index reclaimed key resistance at 53,250 on Monday while holding it throughout the week. Closes below this level and out of the bottom of the uptrend channel has some stretch down to 53,000-52,750 and the 50-day moving average. A close below 52,000 would likely confirm a near-term peak for the index.

Resistance is at 53,750-54,000. Closes above the latter would be a fresh bullish signal for a possible push to the August 5th all-time high at 54,749 and our June 24th target at 55,000.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

Initial Warning Level (Slightly Bearish): Multiple closes above 17.50-18.50

Bearish Market Signal: Multiple closes above 20-22

Lower Volatility Targets (Ongoing Bullishness): 13.50-12.75

The VIX traded up to 16.30 on Tuesday’s weekly peak with key resistance levels at 16.50-17.50 and the 50-day moving average holding. Closes above 18.50 and the 200-day moving average likely gets 20-22 on the map and would suggest a possible near-term market peak.

Friday’s monthly low at 14.13 and second-straight session close below 15 keeps weakness towards 13.50-12.75 on the bullish radar for the market. More on the VIX below.

Earnings and Economic News

Before the open: Science Applications (SAIC), BioLineRX (BLRX)

After the close: Pyxis Tankers (PXS)

Economic News

None for Monday (JOLTs on Tuesday and August Jobs Report on Friday)

Commentary

The biggest news from last week was Nvidia (NVDA) as its revenue beat and strong outlook reignited the AI trade on Thursday. Shares jumped 8.7% on the news and helped lift other stocks: Salesforce (CRM) rallied over 22%, CrowdStrike (CRWD) was up over 20%, and Okta (OKTA) surged 29% on earnings, as well.

Friday’s slight market pullback came after Fed Chair Warsh emphasized getting inflation back towards 2%. His comments increased expectations that the Fed could raise rates again, pushing bond yields higher.

The takeaway we got is that the small-caps performance over the past few weeks tells us higher rates are still hurting rate-sensitive companies. The near-term battle will be AI momentum versus higher rates.

A wild card over the weekend was the deal the U.S. made with Venezuela in what President Trump called the “biggest oil deal in world history". The agreement gives U.S. interests majority control over development tied to more than 65 million barrels of proven Venezuelan oil reserves.

Of course, the Middle East/ Hormuz developments remain far more important over the near-term than the longer-term Venezuela deal but this should help lower diesel prices. Interestingly, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) and WTI Crude (OILUSD) are both showing symmetrical triangles on the charts which typically signals a major move is forthcoming.

The three stocks we are watching include: Halliburton (HAL), Baker Hughes (BKR), and Chevron (CVX).

As far as the other charts, watch the Russell’s and the Dow’s to confirm their uptrend channels hold. The Nasdaq and the S&P, on the other hand, are near key resistance levels and need to likely breakout this week if the VIX makes lower lows. If not, this would be a real warning signal for the market.

In other words, if the VIX gets below 13.50 and the S&P hasn’t cleared 7,775-8,000, or the Nasdaq isn’t above 26,750-27,000 - it is exactly the sort of divergence that can proceed a volatility event. We have mentioned this week’s economic news and the weekend oil developments so we will be watching to see how these developments unfold.

The September monthly options have 18 days from Monday’s open before expiration. October and November regular monthly options have 46 days and 81 days, respectively, before expiration.

Futures as we head to press: Nasdaq (-170), Dow (-159), S&P (-31) and the Russell (-10 points) are in the red.

Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts

Major Market Levels

Nasdaq

Support To Hold: 26,000

Bullish Price To Clear: 26,750

All-Time High Level: 27,000 (27,190 on 6/1)

Bearish Breakdown Level: 25,250

The Nasdaq was down 2.1% for the week with the gain for 2026 now at 12.6%. Thursday’s fade back below 26,250 was slightly bearish with key support at 26,000 and the 50-day moving average (25,950) holding into the weekend. Closes below these levels gets 25,250 back in the mix and where the July 23rd triple-bottom breakdown occurred.

The bulls inability to recover crucial resistance at 26,750 last Monday was an omen following the prior week’s pop above this level. Continued closes above 26,750 and the all-time high at 27,190 gets our May 29th targets at 28,000-28,250 on the playground. The current Fibonacci still points towards a run to 27,500 with the July 29th giving us the near-term bottom for our new uptrend channel. This candle also represents the “3” on the Fibonacci chart.

S&P 500

Support To Hold: 7,600

Bullish Prices To Clear: 7,700-7,775 (Lowered)

All-Time High Level: 7,800 (7,816 on 8/13)

Bearish Breakdown Levels: 7,500-7,400 (New)

The S&P sank 1.4% for the week with its YTD total slipping to 12.1%. Support is at 7,600-7,550 and the 50-day moving average. The bottom of the uptrend channel is basically at 7,500 with the July 29th low at 7,313.

Resistance is at 7,775. Closes above 7,800-7,850 would be a renewed bullish signal for upside towards 8,000. Our Price Target for the index from May 29th was at 7,775 and we have highlighted upside towards 8,000-8,150 if the bulls can clear the month long trading range. The current Fibonacci chart shows an extension towards 8,250.

Russell 2000

Support To Hold: 3,000-2,975

Bullish Prices To Clear: 3,075-3,100

All-Time High Level: 3,075 (3,069 on 8/14)

Bearish Breakdown Levels: 3,000-2,975

The Russell gave back 1.6% for the week but is still up an impressive 21.6% in 2026. Resistance at 3,075 held to start last week with Monday’s peak reaching 3,068. Our June 12th upside targets are at 3,150-3,200.

Key support remains at 3,000-2,975 and the 50-day moving average followed by 2,925. Thursday’s low kissed 2,989 on the one-day close below 3,000. The bottom of the new uptrend channel is also at the 3,000 level. A drop below 2,975 likely indicates a near-term top with additional downside pressure to 2,875-2,800.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Support To Hold: 53,250

Bullish Price To Clear: 55,000

All-Time High Level: 54,750 (54,749 all-time high on 8/5)

Bearish Breakdown Level: 52,000

The Dow was off 0.8% for the week with its gain at 10.8% for the year. The close below crucial support at 53,250 on Thursday, although it was recovered on Friday, was slightly bearish as it clearly got the bottom of the uptrend channel quickly in focus. Backup help is at 52,750-52,500 and the 50-day moving average. A close below 52,000 would likely confirm a near-term peak for the index.

Resistance is at 53,500-53,750. Closes back above 54,000 would be a more bullish signal as it would get the August 5th all-time high at 54,749 and our June 24th target at 55,000 back on the board.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX)

Initial Warning Level (Slightly Bearish): Multiple closes above 16.75-17.50

Bearish Market Signal: Multiple closes above 18.50-20 (lowered)

Lower Volatility Targets (Ongoing Bullishness): 13.50-12.75 (unchanged)

The VIX closed north 15 on Monday and spent the rest of the week parked above this level. Our new and lowered bearish warning signals for the market are at 16.75-17.50 and the 50-day moving followed by closes, or, a move above 18.50 and the 200-day moving average. Closes above 20-22 would suggest a near-term market peak.

Key support levels to watch coming into this week are at 15-14.50 with the previous week’s low at 14.18. We have been repeating a more bullish development for the market would be ongoing closes below 15 with weakness towards 13.50-12.75.

Earnings and Economic News

Before the open: XPeng (XPEV), PDD Holdings (PDD)

After the close: Gorilla Technology (GRRR)

Economic News

None

Commentary

The Bears returned last week just as the Bulls were once again, pushing another round of all-time highs. Technology and semiconductor stocks stalled after leading the major indexes higher earlier this month.

Interest rates were the hot topic as treasury yields jumped and America’s debt blew past $40 trillion. Specifically, the 10-year Treasury pushed towards 4.7%, creating a headwind for growth and technology stocks.

The damage wasn’t too bad as the 50-day moving averages for the major indexes held into the weekend along with key support levels, for the most part. We mentioned last week we adjusted the uptrend channels for the major indexes to reflect the breakout to new highs on the S&P and the Russell.

The Nasdaq and the Dow failed to reach fresh highs and the recent sector rotation has caused some of the near-term bearishness. The one technical setup we are watching closely are the uptrend channels in the Dow and the Russell as they are now being challenged with the 50-day moving averages just below them.

The S&P and the Nasdaq have some breathing room before their uptrend channels comes into play but the 50-day moving averages are not far from current levels and could easily be challenged, or cracked, if there is continued weakness.

The weekly chart work we do on the major indexes, and the VIX, helps us to identify major trends, trend changes and trading ranges. All of the charting helps in making our decisions on trading call (bullish) or put (bearish) options over the near-term along with how deep we might go with covered calls. Trends and charting also help us with our weekly credit spreads.

Earnings will once again be in focus and could play a major role in helping or hindering a return to all-time highs. It could also impact volatility with Nvidia (NVDA) announces numbers on Wednesday. Wall Street looking for a profit of $2.08 a share on revenue of $92 billion.

Other major companies reporting earnings this week include: DICK’S Sporting Goods (DKS), Intuit (INTU), Zoom Communications (ZM) and Box on Tuesday.

Kohl’s (KSS), Dycom Industries (DY), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Salesforce (CRM), CrowdStrike (CRWD) and HP (HPQ) also,report on Wednesday.

Best Buy (BBY), Dollar General (DG), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW), Marvell Technology (MRVL), IREN (IREN) and SentinelOne (S) on Thursday. We are especially interested in S and possibly BBW after the earnings news as setups for possible directional plays. There is not much action on Friday as far as earnings.

The September monthly options have 25 days from Monday’s open before expiration. October and November regular monthly options have 53 days and 88 days, respectively, before expiration.

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FRESH ALL-TIME HIGHS BACK ON THE BOARD

Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts

MAJOR MARKET LEVELS

NASDAQ

Support To Hold: 26,250 to 26,000\ Bullish Price To Clear: 27,000\ All-Time High Level: 27,000 (27,190 on 6/1)\ Bearish Breakdown Levels: 25,250 (New)

The Nasdaq was up 0.5% for the week with the gain for 2026 still above 15%. Thursday recovery of 26,750 finally came following a six-session range with the peak at 26,875.

Continued closes above this level and the all-time high at 27,190 gets our May 29th targets at 28,000 to 28,250 in focus.

We mentioned the current Fibonacci is at 27,500 with the July 29th giving us the near-term bottom for our new uptrend channel. This candle also represents the near-term bottom on the Fibonacci chart.

Several layers of support are good clues to watch before the bears are back in the game, starting at 26,250 to 26,000 and the 50-day moving average at 25,906.

Backup help is at 25,250 with a move below this level suggesting a top with weakness to 24,250 to 24,000 and the 200-day moving average.

S&P 500

Support To Hold: 7,600\ Bullish Price To Clear: 7,800 to 7,850 (New)\ All-Time High Level: 7,816 on Thursday\ Bearish Breakdown Levels: 7,400 (New)

The S&P was up 28 points for the week with its YTD total still north of 13%.

Fresh resistance at 7,800 was cleared but held by a point on Thursday’s record run to 7,816.

Closes above 7,800 to 7,850 would be an ongoing bullish signal for strength towards 7,850 to 8,000.

Our Price Target for the index from May 29th was at 7,775 and we have already mentioned the giddiness of the talking heads predicting 8,000 for the index.

We think there is stretch up to 8,150, and the top of the new uptrend channel we have outlined, with the new Fibonacci chart we ran showing an extension towards 8,250.

Support remains at 7,700 followed by 100-point intervals at 7,600 and 7,500 and the 50-day moving average.

The bottom of the uptrend channel is at 7,400 with the July 29th low at 7,313.

RUSSELL 2000

Support To Hold: 2,925 to 2,875\ Bullish Price To Clear: 3,050\ All-Time High Level: 3,050 (3,048 on 8/5)\ Bearish Breakdown Level: 2,800

The Russell added 1% for the week and has now zoomed 23% in 2026.

Fresh resistance at 3,050 to 3,100 was cleared and held with Friday’s all-time peak reaching 3,069.

This represents a 77% move off the April 2025 low of 1,732.

Our June 12th upside targets remain at 3,150 to 3,200.

Key support has now moved up to 3,000 to 2,975 and the 50-day moving average followed by 2,925.

There was only one close below the latter to end July and 2,925 also serves as the bottom of the new uptrend channel.

There is backup help at 2,875 with a move below likely indicating a top.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE

Support To Hold: 53,250\ Bullish Price To Clear: 55,000\ All-Time High Level: 54,750 (54,749 all-time high on 8/5)\ Bearish Breakdown Level: 52,000

The Dow slipped about 0.5% for the week but has rallied over 11% for the year.

The close above 53,250 from the prior week represented a double-top breakout for the index, with our June 24th target at 55,000 still in focus.

Closes above this level and the recent all-time high at 54,749 could lead to upside towards 56,750 to 57,000.

Critical support remains at 53,250 followed by 52,250 to 52,000 and the 50-day moving average.

A close below the latter levels likely leads to risk down to 51,000 to 50,000.

S&P 500 VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX)

Initial Warning Level (Slightly Bearish): Multiple closes above 17.50 to 18.50\ Bearish Market Signal: Multiple closes above 20 to 22 (lowered)\ Lower Volatility Targets (Ongoing Bullishness): 13.50 to 12.75 (New)

The VIX has closed below 15 in four of the past six sessions with Friday’s lower low tagging 14.18.

We have been repeating a more bullish development for the market would be closes below 15 with weakness towards 13.50 to 12.75.

So far, so good.

Our new and lowered warning signals are at 17 to 17.50 and the 50-day moving average followed by closes or a move above 18.50 and the 200-day moving average.

Once again, closes above 20 to 22 get heightened attention as it would suggest a near-term market peak.

EARNINGS AND ECONOMIC NEWS

Before the open: BitFuFu (FUFU)

After the close: Fabrinet (FN), Flexsteel Industries (FLXS)

ECONOMIC NEWS

Empire State and NAHB Housing

COMMENTARY

We adjusted the uptrend channels for the major indexes to reflect the breakout to new highs on the S&P and the Russell.

The Nasdaq and the Dow are near record peaks and the bounce off the July 29th lows is now being used off the late March lows to form the bottom of the channels.

The bottom of the channels also represents key support levels nestled below the 50-day moving averages.

The new waves of support levels above the major indexes will also serve as warning signals on when the Bears might be back on the prowl.

The top of the uptrend channels coincide with the mid-June peaks and could be adjusted on parabolic moves higher.

In the meantime, the major indexes are hovering around the middle of these current uptrend channels.

The weekly chart work we do on the major indexes and the VIX helps us to identify major trends, trend changes and trading ranges.

All of the charting helps in making our decisions on trading call (bullish) or put (bearish) options over the near term.

With the 2Q earnings season still winding down, there will be a number of companies making news throughout the week.

Home Depot (HD), Baidu (BIDU), La-Z-Boy (LZB) and Toll Brothers (TOL) announce numbers on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, Target (TGT), Lowe’s (LOW), Nordson (NDSN) and Wolfspeed (WOLF) highlight the session.

WOLF has been a heavily shorted stock and TGT could be on the verge of a breakout.

Thursday morning gives us Walmart (WMT), Alibaba (BABA), Deere & Company (DE).

Ross Stores (ROST) and Flowers Foods (FLO) announce after the close.

And for Friday morning, BJ’s Wholesale (BJ) is the only stock we actively follow.

Housing starts, the weekly unemployment numbers, and Friday’s PMI data could help or hinder the action.

As we head to press, futures are mixed.

Dow futures are down 77 points but the Nasdaq futures are up 83.

The S&P futures are up five points and the Russell futures are slipping two ticks.

The August monthly options have 4 days from Monday’s open before expiration.

September and October regular monthly options have 32 days and 60 days, respectively, before expiration.

All-Time Highs in Play on Double-Top Breakout

Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts

Major Market Levels

Nasdaq

Support To Hold: 26,250-26,000 

Bullish Price To Clear: 26,750 

All-Time High Level: 27,000 (27,190 on 6/1)

Bearish Breakdown Levels: 25,750-24,500

The Nasdaq was up 5.2% for the week with the gain for 2026 at 15%. Tuesday’s recovery of 26,250 and the 50-day moving average was a bullish signal but the rest of the week was sandwiched in a 500-point range. Prior resistance throughout June at 26,750 held with Wednesday’s peak at 26,739. Closes above this level gets 27,000-27,250 and the all-time high at 27,190 in the mix. Our May 29th notes predicted possible summertime upside to 28,000-28,250 with the current Fibonacci at 27,500.  

There are once again several layers of support before the bears are back in the game, starting with 26,250-26,000 and the 50-day moving average. Backup help is at 25,250 and then 24,500. The 200-day moving average has moved up to just above 24,000.

S&P 500

Support To Hold: 7,600

Bullish Price To Clear: 7,800

All-Time High Level: 7,800 (7,793 on 8/5) 

Bearish Breakdown Levels: 7,400-7,225

The S&P jumped 3.6% for the week with its YTD move now at 13%. Fresh resistance at 7,800 was challenged with Wednesday’s all-time high at 7,793 and Friday’s peak at 7,763. Closes above 7,800 would be an ongoing bullish signal for strength towards 7,850-8,000. 

Support is at 7,700 followed by 100-point intervals at 7,600 and 7,500 and the 50-day moving average. The prior Wednesday’s fade to 7,313 was only a 4% slide from the previous all-time high top at 7,620.

Russell 2000

Support To Hold: 2,925-2,875

Bullish Price To Clear: 3,050

All-Time High Level: 3,050 (3,048 on 8/5) 

Bearish Breakdown Level: 2,800

The Russell soared 4% for the week and has skyrocketed 22% in 2026. Prior resistance at 3,000-3,050 was cleared and held last Wednesday with the all-time top now at 3,048. This represents a 75% move off the April 2025 low of 1,732. Our June 12th upside targets remain at 3,150-3,200. 

Key support at 2,925 failed to hold on the prior Wednesday’s dip to 2,903 but held on the previous Friday’s double-bottom at 2,902. We have repeatedly said a clean break below 2,925 and the 50-day moving average (now at 2,934) would likely get early June support at 2,800 back in focus. This is still the case for August.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Support To Hold: 53,250

Bullish Price To Clear: 55,000

All-Time High Level: 54,750 (54,749 all-time high on 8/5) 

Bearish Breakdown Level: 52,000

The Dow popped 3% for the week and has rallied 12% for the year. The close above 53,250 midweek was also a double-top breakout like the S&P, and gets our June 24th target at 55,000 in focus. Closes above this level and last Wednesday’s all-time high at 54,749 could lead to upside towards 56,750-57,000.

New support is at 53,250 followed by 52,000 and the 50-day moving average. Additional layers of support are at 51,000-50,000.

S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) 

Initial Warning Level (Slightly Bearish): Multiple closes above 17.50-18.50

Bearish Market Signal: Multiple closes above 22-24

Lower Volatility Targets (Ongoing Bullishness): 15 (maybe 13.50-12.75)

The VIX closed back below 17.50 and the 50-day moving average on July 30th and a level that was cleared but didn’t hold the following session and again last Wednesday. This will be first signal (multiple closes) of the bears possibly returning followed by closes or a move above 18.50 and the 200-day moving average. Once again, closes above 20-22 get heightened attention as it would suggest a near-teem market top. And remember, we’ve only had three, one-day closes above these levels since April 9th.

The close below 15 on Friday was the first since January 9th. New support is now at 13.50 with the December 24th low from last year at 13.38. We stated just last week a more bullish development for the market would be closes below 15 with weakness towards 13.50-12.75. There is a slim, and we mean a very slim possibility, the VIX trades down to 10, and possibly single-digits, on an ongoing rip-your-face off rally. The last time the VIX accomplished that feat was in 2017, and almost in 2007. 

Earnings and Economic News

Before the open: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), Dole (DOLE), Life360 (LIF), Veru (VERU)

After the close: Rocket Lab (RKLB), Hims & Hers Health (HIMS), Plug Power (PLUG), GoPro (GPRO), Dragonfly (DPRO), Rapid7 (RPD), Trump Media & Technology (DJT)

Economic News

None

Commentary 

Once again, the bulls rallied from the brink of disaster, while pushing all-time highs and a v-shape recovery off the previous week’s low. The Nasdaq had fallen 10% from its all-time high but recovered half of its losses on a percentage basis last week.  Meanwhile, the broader market, the blue-chips, and the small-caps tagged fresh all-time highs.

We mentioned last week the bulls resiliency was keeping longer-term trading ranges in play and that a pending breakout, or breakdown, was on the horizon. We are going to wait until next week to possibly draw new uptrend channels off the previous all-time peaks and prior support levels to confirm a longer-term and ongoing bullish trend.

If we were to draw the uptrend channels now, the major indexes, excluding the Nasdaq, would show the 50-day moving averages right at the bottom of the newly formed uptrend channels. The Nasdaq would be at the top of a new uptrend channel, and on the verge of a breakout.

The height of the 2Q earnings season is in the rearview mirror but there are a few companies earnings and economic news we are watching this week.

Aside from Monday’s earnings we highlighted earlier, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) on Tuesday morning and T1 Energy (TE) on Wednesday morning.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) reports numbers after Wednesday’s and Yeti (YETI) Thursday morning. Applied Materials (AMAT) highlights the week and comes after Thursday’s close. Unemployment numbers, CPI and retail sales could add some extra, or lessen, volatility in the market starting on Wednesday.

As we head to press, futures are mostly lower. Dow futures are down 81 points but the Nasdaq futures are up 31. The S&P futures are off two points and the Russell futures are slipping six ticks. 

The August monthly options have 11 days from Monday’s open before expiration. September and October regular monthly options have 39 days and 67 days, respectively, before expiration. 

Hey, we start in 5 minutes…

Today the market coughed up all kinds of price action winners…

We’ve got an easy setup you can watch for all day tomorrow.

… we’ve got a simple 3-second scan ready and waiting.

If you think you can spot:

… 🟢🟢🟢 three green boxes … or … 🔴🔴🔴 three red boxes…

Then join NOW!

Hello members!

Unfortunately, we've had to cancel your member session today... sometimes things happen that can't be predicted, and today is one of those times!

But don't worry - we will make it up to you! Watch your email for further details!

We truly apologize for the inconvenience today, but thank you for your understanding.

We appreciate you, WealthMintr Member Support

IMPORTANT TIME CHANGE:

If you are a member of any of the following: - Triple Play - 5-Minute Trader - BreakZone Trader

Your member session today, normally at 4pm ET, has been unavoidably pushed back by one hour, to 5pm ET.

We apologize for the short notice, but it couldn't be helped. And as always, recordings will be available in your member area shortly after the session.

Rob is ready to welcome you at 5pm ET today - please join with your normal Zoom join link!

See you at 5pm ET!

Thank you for your understanding, WealthMintr Member Support

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These are the POSSIBLE credit spreads we are looking at getting into on Wednesday. Our goal is to provide two or three ideas on stocks that are on our Watch List that should help you in targeting the net credit we are seeing as of Tuesday’s closing bell.

Please note, these credit spreads could change dramatically and these Alerts could be adjusted, or voided, depending on market conditions. There are typically price movements on the open and during the session that could and will impact the spreads dramatically and we don’t recommend chasing credit.

This week’s candidates:

Coinbase Global (COIN) Bear Call Spread $175/ $177.50

Expiration: July 10th, 2026

Credit as of 7/7 close: 29-45 cents

Target: 35-40 cents with a Limit Order

We would like to see a move below $160 into Wednesday afternoon. If $173.50 is cleared, VOID the setup. We are looking for shares to stay below $175 into Friday’s close.

First Solar (FSLR) Bull Put Spread $210 / $207.50

Expiration: July 10th, 2026

Credit as of 7/7 close: 20-45 cents

Target: 27-32 cents with a Limit Order

We would like to see another move above $237.50 into Wednesday afternoon. If $220 is breached, VOID the setup. We are looking for shares to stay above $210 into Friday’s close.

Meta Platforms (META) Bear Call Spread $635/ $637.50

Expiration: July 10th, 2026

Credit as of 7/7 close: 20-35 cents

Target: 28-33 cents with a Limit Order

We would like to see a move below $602.50 into Wednesday afternoon. If $625 is cleared again, VOID the setup. We are looking for shares to stay below $635 into Friday’s close.

Happy Tuesday 5K Club Members!

Here's a replay and rundown of today's session

Shell plc (SHEL) Price to clear: above $85–86 Target: $89, then $91+ Bail/stop area: below $85 Watching for continuation momentum if price can reclaim and hold above the $85–86 zone. Initial upside target sits near the high-volume node around $89, with extension potential toward $91+. July $92.50 calls were highlighted.

Groupon Inc. (GRPN) Price to clear: close above $18 Target: $21, then $23 Bail/stop area: below $18 Groupon continues to trend higher after the prior breakout move. Traders are watching for a sustained close above $18 to fuel continuation toward the $21 and $23 zones.

TG Therapeutics Inc. (TGTX) Price to clear: above $40 Target: continuation higher above current range Bail/stop area: failure to hold current support zone TGTX remains at a pivotal area within the volume profile structure. A move above $40 could open the door for another leg higher.

Rocket Lab USA Inc. (RKLB) Price to clear: waiting for retracement setup Target: continuation of current trend Bail/stop area: retracement failure RKLB was highlighted after a successful fade-and-bounce setup. Momentum remains strong, but traders are waiting for a cleaner pullback entry after the recent surge.

AST SpaceMobile Inc. (ASTS) Price to clear: already cleared $101 Target: continuation higher from current $124 area Bail/stop area: retracement toward $110 ASTS exploded higher after escaping a major volume profile zone. Traders are now watching for a potential fade/retest into the $110 area before continuation.

Marvell Technology Inc. (MRVL) Price to clear: reclaim after retracement toward $180 Target: continuation above current $203–204 area Bail/stop area: failure to hold near $180 MRVL continues to show strong momentum after the earlier breakout from the $100 area. Traders are now monitoring for a retracement toward $180 before scouting additional August and September calls.

Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. (MARA) Price to clear: bounce from $13–13.11 zone Target: $16 Bail/stop area: below $13 MARA continues to trend higher following the previously flagged stock repurchase catalyst. Traders are watching for another bounce setup near the institutional volume zone around $13.

Redwire Corporation (RDW) Price to clear: support near $17.50 Target: $22 Bail/stop area: below $17.50 RDW surged following a major contract award announcement. Traders are now watching for a retracement into the $17.50 area before potential continuation toward $22.

Additional Momentum / Triple Play Watchlist Relay Therapeutics Inc. (RLAY) Price to clear: hold above current trend structure Target: $18.99 / $19 Bail/stop area: below current trend support Triple Play printed a buy signal while price remains above the T3 line. Traders are watching for additional momentum confirmation.

DFTX Price to clear: maintain bullish structure above T3 line Target: $26.66 Bail/stop area: loss of bullish momentum Buying momentum has started to improve alongside a fresh Triple Play buy signal.

Enliven Therapeutics Inc. (ELVN) Price to clear: continuation above current $41 area Target: $57 Bail/stop area: mixed momentum failure ELVN continues to show longer-term upside potential with Triple Play buy confirmation already printed.

*IMPORTANT: Today's Weekly VIP Member session (May 22nd) will be held at 1pm ET instead of our usual 12pm ET meeting time, due to a scheduling conflict.

We apologize for the inconvenience, but hope to see you at 1pm ET!

Register here if you haven't already!

Hey Traders!

We had some technical difficulty starting our 2pm ET Triple Play event this afternoon, but we are live now at THIS NEW LINK:

https://us06web.zoom.us/j/82663367425

No registration required, just click and join the fun!

Special gift for those who jump in now!

Team WealthMintr

REAL Wealth Income Track Record for 2026: 4-0 (100%). Since inception: 228-27 (89% win rate). Please remember, all "Exit Targets” and "Stop Targets” are targets. You should not have any "Stops” entered to close any alerts or "Limit Orders” in your brokerage account unless we list one. We will send out an “Alert” or "New Alert” if we want you to close a position or if a new one comes out. Otherwise, follow instructions at all times in the‬ updates on Monday’s and Thursday’s‬ along with the Text Alerts and videos throughout the week.

Pacific Gas & Electric (PCG, $19.00, up $0.12)

Sold PCG April 19 calls (PCG260417C00019000)

Entry Price: $18.72 (2/26/2026)

Price from Dividends and Options: $18.10

Exit Target: $22

Return: 5%

Stop Target: $14

Action: Shares opened at $18.72 on Thursday with the PCG April 19 calls opening at 62 cents.

Friday’s high tagged $19.09 with lower resistance at $19-$19.25 getting topped and holding. Closes above the latter could lead to ongoing strength to $20.50. Support is at $18.25-$18.

Lionsgate Studios (LION, $9.00, up $0.75)

Sold LION March 9 calls (LION260320C00009000)

Entry Price: $9.07 (2/9/2026)

Price from Dividends and Options: $8.52

Exit Target: $12

Return: 6%

Stop Target: $7

Action: Prior and lower resistance from mid-February at $9.25-$9.50 was topped but held. Support is at $8.50-$8.25.

CEA Industries (BNC, $3.42, down $0.35)

Sold BNC March 5 calls (BNC260320C00005000)

Entry Price: $11.00 (10/8/2025)

Price from Dividends and Options: $6.70

Exit Target: $10

Return: -49%

Stop Target: $3

Action: Fresh and lower resistance at $3.75-$4 was cleared and held on the pop to $3.91. Support is at $3.50-$3.25.

ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO, $9.06, down $0.26)

Sold BITO March 13 calls (BITO260313C00013000)

Entry Price: $22.87 (7/16/2025)

Price from Dividends and Options: $14.80

Exit Target: $25

Return: -39%

Stop Target: $8

Action: Upper support at $9-$8.75 was cracked but held on the fade to $8.99. Resistance remains at $9.50-$9.75.

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX, $8.75, up $0.85)

Entry Price: $10.15 (5/13/2025)

Price from Dividends and Options: $8.70

Exit Target: $12

Return: 1%

Stop Target: $5

Action: Fresh and lower resistance at $8.75-$9 was cleared but held on Friday’s 11% surge. There is a chance $9.50-$10.50 comes into play on closes above $9. New support is at $8.25-$8.

Earnings on Thursday were an absolute blowout and we said last week we can start to plan for a profitable exit. We still love the stock but this remains our longest running alert.

Replay & Important Purchase Match Update (below)

Good evening! We enjoyed hosting all of you at Tuesday night's Private Members Only Open House & Orientation!

▶️ In case you missed it here's the full replay... we covered ALL of our programs... recent performance... and what's ahead for 2026.

‼️Important Note: We've extended the dollar-for-dollar purchase match offer through Friday. This means anything you purchase will be matched by WealthMintr dollar-for-dollar with a house credit - as long as you complete your order by Friday.

👉 Simply email us at Support@WealthMintr.com with the Subject Line 'Credit' and our Education Specialist, Solomon Mills will help you access whatever you need!

We enjoyed hosting all of you at last night's Private Members Only Open House & Orientation!

▶️ In case you missed it here's the full replay... we covered ALL of our programs... recent performance... and what's ahead for 2026.

‼️Important Note: We've extended the dollar-for-dollar house credit match program through Friday. This means anything you purchase will be matched by WealthMintr dollar-for-dollar with a house credit - as long as you complete your order by Friday.

👉 Simply email us at Support@WealthMintr.com with the Subject Line 'Credit' and our Education Specialist will help you with access to whatever you need!

Good morning ISP Members, Here's what we found during this morning's scan:

Alert Update

VFC (V.F. Corporation) - Has still not cleared $14 so that one is on the sidelines.

CCO (Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings, Inc.) - Which was highlighted last week during the VIP update IN FACT took off! Keep an eye on that since there was a pull back as of yesterday morning and there may be a chance to still get in.

RFL (Rafael Holdings, Inc.) BOLTED last week - a classic insider play! May also still have room in the tank. This $16.7M buy is your classic ‘conviction’ play. Note that share price was already running… (screen shots below) We'll review these along with the tickers we're watching during today's VIP member event

Also note they should keep an eye out for a deep dive scan session this Friday... so come with questions and/or keep an eye out for the recording! Plenty more to chase... keep an eye on buys during this down market action!

Happy Trading! Jason & Team WealthMintr

Despite the choppiness, May turned out to be a very bullish month as the major indexes posted solid gains. With earnings season winding down, and volatility still slightly elevated, savvy traders are looking for clues to confirm a possible summer rally - or signs of a market top.

The second quarter earnings season starts in early July and until then, economic and geopolitical news, will likely drive price action. We have warned a close above 24-26 on the Volatility Index (VIX) would be bearish for the market while closes below 17.50 would be bullish for the major indexes.

Aside from the VIX, we are also watching major support and resistance levels for the major indexes like a hawk. Additionally, we also like to track the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) as the index can sometimes offer important clues on how the Dow Jones might trade.

The Dow Transports often act as a leading or confirming indicator for the Dow and the broader market, in general. If you're seeing divergences between the Dow and Dow Transports, it’s worth doing further research as it might signal a turning point or loss of momentum.

This theory, or relationship, between the blue-chips and the transports is rooted in a century-old principle known as Dow Theory, which remains influential among technical analysts. Historically, the Dow Theory suggests the stock market is in an uptrend if both the Dow Jones Industrials Average and the Transports are making higher highs. These factors would also confirm a possible bull market or economic strength.

A deeper dive into Dow theory also suggests that if the Dow is rising but the Transports are lagging or falling, this could signal bearish divergence and cracks in the economy. If the Transports break sharply lower it could be a warning signal that the Dow may follow its lead shortly afterwards. And finally, if the Transports are leading the Dow higher, this is a bullish signal and means demand and growth could be picking up.

With this being said, Dow Theory is not a timing tool, and is better used for possible trend confirmation. In other words, this analysis is more reliable over weeks and months, not day-to-day. The Transport stocks are and heavily tied to economic trends like fuel prices, e-commerce volume, and supply chains.

As far as the charts for both, let’s take a look at the Dow Jones Transportation Index (DJT), first. The May 12th breakout above the 50-day moving average was a bullish development but fell shy of key resistance at 15,250. A six-session trading range followed before a pullback towards the 50-day moving average. The recent action is still holding an uptrend line with resistance at 15,250 forming an ascending triangle. This is typically a bullish setup for a breakout, or higher highs, if cleared and held.

A drop below 14,500-14,250 and out of this technical formation would be a bearish development. Closes below the latter would likely confirm a near-term top for the Transports and possibly the overall market.

There are 20 companies in DJT that include the major airlines (Delta, American), railroads (Union Pacific, CSX), trucking (J.B. Hunt, Old Dominion), and shipping and logistics (FedEx, UPS). It can also helpful to check the price action in some of these individual stocks to confirm price action.

As far as the Dow, key resistance levels are at 42,400 and the 200-day moving average followed by 42,800. Support is at 41,000 and the 50-day moving average.

In summary, watch for multiple closes above 15,250 on the Dow Jones Transportation Index, then 42,400 and 42,800 for the Dow. If all of these levels are cleared and held, a summer rally could be in store for the stock market.

Closes below 14,250 on the Dow Jones Transportation Index and closes below 41,000 and the 50-day moving average on the Dow could be bearish developments for the stock market.

As far as trading the Transports, the S&P Transportation Index (XTN) is also showing an ascending triangle pattern with a possible breakout occurring on continued closes above $80. The next waves of resistance would be at $82 and 200-day moving average followed by $84. A close below support at $74 and the 50-day moving average would suggest a near-term top.

Market Posts Bullish Numbers for May

Wall Street was mostly weak on Friday after the Trump administration indicated trade negotiations with China is at a stalemate and may require the Presidents from both parties to come together for the next possible steps. Volatility spiked above a key level of resistance shortly after the open following the news before the major indexes made a late day comeback off the lows.

The Nasdaq fell to a low of 18,847 before ending at 19,113 (-0.3%). Key support at 19,000 was cracked but held. Resistance remains at 19,250.

The S&P 500 closed just a half-point lower at 5,911 (-0.01%) after bottoming at 5,843. Key support at 5,850 held. Resistance is at 5,950.

The Dow traded up to 42,376 while settling at 42,270 (+0.1%). Resistance at 42,250 was recovered. Support is at 42,000.

Earnings and Economic News

Before the open: Campbell Soup (CPB), Science Applications International (SAIC)

After the close: Credo Technology Group (CRDO), Pyramid Oil (PDO)

Economic News

PMI Manufacturing Index - 9:45am

Construction Spending - 10:00am

ISM Manufacturing Index - 10:00am

Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts

For the week, the Nasdaq was up 2% while the S&P rose 1.9%. The Dow added 1.6% and the Russell gained 1.4%. For the month of May, the Nasdaq surged over 10%; the S&P jumped 6%; the Russell rallied 5%; and the Dow soared 4%.

Once again, the uptrend channels held for the Dow and the Nasdaq with the S&P’s getting stretched. The Russell fell out of its uptrend channel on May 21st but an adjusted uptrend channel off the May 23rd low keeps a fresh one in play.

This is another example of “stretch” and why we like to do daily technical analysis. In fact, throughout Friday’s action we were doing chart work and watching key support levels.

The Nasdaq remains in a 14-session trading range between 18,500-19,250 following the May 12th breakout. Thursday’s higher multi-month peak at 19,389 was a tease. Continued closes above 19,250, and a level the bulls need to recover to start the week, confirms a possible push towards 19,750-20,000.

A drop below 18,500 and the 200-day moving average would be bearish signals for lower lows down to 18,250-18,000. This level also represents the bottom of the current uptrend channel.

The S&P 500 remains rangebound between 5,800-5,975 with the May 23rd low at 5,767. Multiple closes below 5,800 and the 200-day moving average would suggest further weakness to 5,700-5,650.

Key resistance is at 5,950 with the May 19th top at 5,968. There is upside potential to 6,000-6,100 on closes above the aforementioned price points.

The Russell 2000 held its adjusted uptrend channel while hovering around 2,075. The March 24th and 25th hit a double top high at 2,110 with more crucial resistance at 2,135. If these levels are cleared and held, there is gap up potential towards 2,175-2,200 and the 200-day moving average.

Key support is at 2,050 with Friday’s low at 2,051. Multiple closes back below this level would imply a further slide down to 2,000 and the 50-day moving average.

The Dow has closed above 42,000 for four-straight sessions with backup support at 41,750-41,500. A close below 41,000 and the 50-day moving average would be a bearish development.

The bears have been holding 42,500 and the 200-day moving average for seven-straight sessions. Closes above 42,800, specifically, would be a bullish development for the blue-chips with further strength to 43,000-43,250.

The Volatility Index (VIX) bubbled to a high of 20.55 with key resistance at 20 getting topped but holding. Closes above resistance at 24-26 and the 50-day moving average would be a renewed bearish development for the stock market.

Closes below 17.50 are needed to give the bulls some momentum. There was one close below 17.50 on May 16th that teased the market.

With the first-quarter earnings season in the books, economic news and tariff concerns will likely dominate the headlines over the near-term. However, there will be a few notable companies reporting throughout June that could provide traders some clues on the economy and the consumer. Lululemon Athletica (LULU), DocuSign (DOCU) and Toro (TTC) highlight a busy Thursday.

The second-quarter closes on month end and companies will start to announce their numbers the second week of July. We expect a busy summer of trading so stay locked-and-loaded as a run to all-times highs could be coming, or another double-digit correction if key support levels start to crack.

With shares of Tesla (TSLA) breaking out to higher highs, investors might want to add Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares (TSLL) to their Watch List. This is a leveraged exchanged-traded fund (ETF) designed to move 200% of the daily performance of Tesla stock. In other words, if TSLA is up or down 1%, TSLL will move 2%, or again, twice the action that TSLA does.

The ETF was created in August 2022 and has assets under management of just over $6 billion. The current dividend yield is just under 4% and is paid quarterly. This also makes TSLL a great covered call candidate as you can sell call options to get additional income on a monthly basis.

The chart below shows shares made a move from $11.20 on November 4th to $25.15 by December 5th of last year. If the 200-day moving average continues to hold, and shares can clear and hold $17 for multiple sessions, there is a chance for a quick trip to $19-$20.

There has also been some unusual options activity recently in TSLL. On May 21st, the stock closed at $14.08 with the TSLL July 25 calls at 70 cents. Volume for the session hit 5,185 contracts versus open interest of 31 contract beforehand.

Other popular and leveraged ETF’s include: Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL), ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ), and Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares (SPXL).

It is important to note, the same risks that stocks have also apply to ETF’s but leveraged ETF’s can carry two and three times the risks/ rewards. Leveraged ETF’s have become popular and provide multiple exposure (again 2X or 3X) to the daily performance of the underlying stock or index.

Leveraged ETF’s are a speculative way for traders looking to capitalize on short-term market moves without engaging in derivatives or futures. They also offer a way for traders to capture the whiplash of sentiment-driven markets.

A key consideration when trading leveraged ETF’s is that they are intended for short-term trading, for the most part. They are highly volatile and suitable for traders that actively manage their portfolios and understand the risks associated with leveraged ETF’s.

Nvidia (NVDA) Tops Estimates

The stock market rebounded on Tuesday following a three-day holiday weekend to keep the current uptrend channels intact. Wednesday’s slight pullback came ahead of Nvidia’s earnings as traders were hesitant to put fresh money to work.

The Nasdaq closed at 19,100 (-0.5%) after testing a low of 19,084. Key support at 19,000 held. Resistance is at 19,250.

The S&P 500 reached a peak of 5,939 before settling lower at 5,888 (-0.6%). Support at 5,800 held. Resistance is at 5,950.

The Dow finished at 42,098 (-0.6%) with the intraday low at 42,042. Support at 42,000 held. Resistance is at 42,250.

Earnings and Economic News

Before the open: Best Buy (BBY), Burlington Stores (BURL), Foot Locker (FL), Kohl’s (KSS)

After the close: American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), Dell Technologies (DELL), Marvell Technology Group (MRVL), Zscaler (ZS)

Economic news:

Initial Jobless Claims - 8:30am

GDP - 8:30am

Pending Home Sales - 10:00am

Technical Outlook and Market Thoughts

It was crucial the current uptrend channels held to start the week with volatility easing, or at least holding key resistance. While there was a little wiggle room for some stretch, Tuesday’s 2% market rebound remained an ongoing bullish signal as key resistance levels were cleared, or challenged.

Wednesday’s slight pullback kept the blue-chips below the 200-day moving average. The S&P and the Nasdaq cleared their 200-day moving averages on the May 12th breakout. The small-caps remain trapped between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages but could catch fire if the mid-month high is cleared.

The Nasdaq remains in a 12-session trading range between 18,500-19,250 following the May 12th breakout. Wednesday’s multi-month peak reached 19,276 with closes above 19,250 confirming a possible push towards 19,750-20,000.

A close below 18,500 and the 200-day moving average would be a slightly bearish development with additional weakness to 18,250-18,000.

The S&P 500 is also in a 12-session trading range between 5,800-5,975 with Wednesday’s top at 5,939. Multiple closes above 5,975 and the monthly peak at 5,968 would indicate ongoing strength to 6,000-6,100.

Key support is now at 5,850. There is stretch down to 5,800 and the 200-day moving average on a close below this level.

The Russell 2000 traded up to 2,114 on May 16th with Wednesday’s peak at 2,092. The March 24th and 25th hit a double top high at 2,110 with more crucial resistance at 2,135. This level failed to hold as crucial support on the March 1st 3% selloff in the index. If all of the aforementioned levels are cleared and held, there is potential for a resumed and quick v-shape recovery up to 2,175-2,200 and the 200-day moving average.

Key support is at 2,050. A drop back below this level would suggest a retest to 2,000 and the 50-day moving average.

The Dow cleared its 200-day moving average on Wednesday but a level that has held both days this week. Multiple closes above 42,250 gets 42,750-43,000 back in play with the prior Monday’s peak at 42,842.

Key support is at 42,000 with backup help at 41,750-41,500. A close below 41,000 and the 50-day moving average would imply a near-term top for the blue-chips.

The Volatility Index (VIX) fell 15% on Tuesday and closed back below key support at 20. The more important target remains at 17.50 with multiple closes below this level confirming a run to all-time highs for the major indexes. There was one close below 17.50 on May 16th after this level was tested seven-straight sessions earlier this month.

Any move, or close, on the VIX above resistance at 24, or 26 and the 50-day moving average, should be taken seriously, as it would be a bearish development for the market.

Dow component, Nvidia (NVDA), announced earnings after Wednesday’s close that topped Wall Street’s forecasts. The company posted an adjusted profit of $0.96 a share versus expectations of $0.93 a share. Revenue of $44 billion also cleared estimates for a print of $43.3 billion.

Shares were up 5% in after-hours action and above $141. This should lead to a positive open for Thursday, providing the gains hold. We have been busy this week as we wanted to take advantage of the possible breakout to higher highs. We could still have Alert updates, and possible New Alerts, the rest of the week so stay locked-and-loaded.

Unusual Options Activity (UOA) is a scan traders use to possibly identify option trades that significantly deviate from a stock’s typical volume or open interest. These occurrences highlight atypical trading patterns in the options market, such as a major spike in volume, large blocks of options bought at specific strike prices, or activity that deviates from historical norms.

UOA trades can sometimes indicate traders or investors are expecting a major move in the underlying stock, up or down, and are positioning themselves ahead of an anticipated market-moving event. This could be possible earnings news (beat or a miss), major products announcements, clinical drug trials, major contract awards, or management news (CEO hire or fire).

From a bullish standpoint, a sudden spike in call option buying might suggest expectations of a stock price increase due to the aforementioned events. A surge in a particular put option buying might imply expectations for a stock price decrease or selloff.

There are a number of key signs and filters you can look for and use when scanning for unusual options activity. The first is high volume relative to open interest. In other words, you want to look for a particular option that traded 50,000 contracts (which is five million shares now under control) in a session versus open interest of 100 contracts, or less.

If the open interest is high, traders often look for volume that day that is five or 10 times higher. For example, if open interest is already at 1,000 contracts and volume for the session tops 10,000 - that is a candidate for unusual options activity.

Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) is a recent example where traders are expecting major price movement by early June as there was heavy action on May 21st in the June 17.50 and June 19 calls that expire on June 6th.

Volume approached 75,000 and over 87,000 in the two aforementioned options and is suggesting traders are expecting a pop towards $20. Volume in the TEVA June 18 calls that expire on June 6th nearly tripped 3,000 on Friday and is still showing traders are buying near-term call options.

Other signs of UOA can include large premium trades where institutions are putting millions into one strike price and sweeps, where you see orders that aggressively filled across multiple exchanges. This can signal urgency.

If there is high volume in deep out-of-the-money options from the current stock price, this can indicate unusual options activity as traders are betting on speculative moves. Implied volatility spikes can also suggest traders are expecting a big move over the near-term, and sometimes longer-term.

It is also important to note that not all UOA is directional, some can be hedges and why it is important to do further research. This could include technical and fundamental analysis.

Aside from directional bets on unusual options activity, traders often use credit spreads and straddles or strangles. If doing a credit spread, you will want to analyze whether UOA points to near-term or long-term conviction and construct bull call spreads or bear put spreads, accordingly.

Straddles or strangles are basically hedges where you buy both a call and put option. This will provide protection, or a profit, if a trader is uncertain of the direction and is just anticipating a very large stock increase, or decrease, of at least double-digits.

With any strategy, there are no guaranteed outcomes from following unusual options activity and it doesn't always lead to an expected stock breakout or breakdown.

Shares of Groupon (GRPN) recently broke out to a fresh 52-week high of $26.90 following an earnings beat on both the top and bottom lines. The company reported a profit of 17 cents a share versus forecasts for a loss of 12 cents. Revenue of $117 million also cleared forecasts for a print of $115 million.

In the previous quarter, the company reported a loss of $1.20 a share while estimates were for a loss of four cents. Revenue of $130 million was 2% higher than expectations for $127.7 million.

Groupon provides an e-commerce platform that connects customers with local businesses offering discounted deals. Some of their partners might include local merchants such as restaurants, gyms, and event organizers.

They emphasize a pay-for-performance business model, meaning the merchant only incurs a cost when a sale is made through the platform. Groupon’s revenue is mainly derived from commissions, advertising services, and subscription programs.

The company earns a percentage of each deal sold, typically in the range of 30%-50% of the deal’s value. Merchants can also pay for enhanced visibility through sponsored placements on the company’s website and targeted marketing campaigns.

Shares zoomed 42% on May 8th after closing at $24.21, up $7.23, from the May 7th close at $16.98. On March 12th, shares skyrocketed 43% after earnings to close at $13.98, up $4.21, from the previous session close at $9.77. Back in November, the stock fell 27% despite an earnings beat as revenue missed forecasts.

A mini trading range has formed between $25-$27 since the earnings announcement. There is gap down potential to $20 if shares fall below $24. Continued closes above $26.50 could lead to another breakout with upside to $31 and resistance from January 2022.

Two days ahead of earnings, there was some unusual options activity in the GRPN June 22 (weekly) calls that expire on June 6th, 2025. Volume on May 5th came in at 5,000 for the session with the stock at $16.78. Open interest at the time was only one contract. This suggested traders, or maybe one trader, expected a massive move in the stock. History also showed the possibility was there for an explosive breakout, or breakdown.

These calls options closed at 45 cents on May 5th. After the 42% pop in the stock, these calls were trading at $4.40 on the May 13th close. The return was an astronomical 878%.

We will keep Groupon on our Watch List for another trading opportunity as another massive could be coming.